Has Red Bull run out of room to improve its Formula 1 car?

Max Verstappen has demanded better upgrades from Red Bull, but the Formula 1 team could be at a development ceiling

Max Verstappen may have won the Spanish Grand Prix, but McLaren's newfound competitiveness is causing discomfort for him and Red Bull.

The early-season dominance, where Verstappen could effortlessly win, now feels like a distant memory as rivals have closed the gap through mid-season upgrades. Recent victories seem more attributable to his exceptional driving skills than to any inherent car advantage.

The world champion is not particularly pleased with this situation. He believes that if Red Bull doesn't accelerate its development of the RB20, they could soon find themselves losing ground to their competitors.

Speaking in Spain, he said: "McLaren has been very strong for some time now. It’s not a sudden concern for me, but I've been emphasizing for weeks that we need more performance from our car, and everyone on the team is aware of that.

"So far, it seems that our rivals are bringing more updates than we are. We must work on enhancing our car's performance too."

When asked if Red Bull was stagnating, Verstappen responded: "No, we are making improvements, but perhaps not at the same rate as the others right now."

Red Bull has historically been adept at making significant advancements with its dominant cars, but they seem to have become more cautious over time.

Rather than introducing major new parts, the current trend appears to be optimizing existing components, as demonstrated in Spain last weekend.

In Barcelona, their changes focused on adjusting the sidepod's inlet geometry to improve cooling and aerodynamic efficiency. The designers worked on refining the shape of the undercut and beltline.

Regarding the inlet, instead of a simple vertical profile, it now has a pinched center, altering airflow entry and distribution around the sidepod's leading edge.

The sidepod's bodywork was extensively modified, with the undercut and beltline raised, increasing the gap between the sidepod's underbelly and the floor, necessitating changes in how the floor and sidepod bodywork interact.

Additionally, there were modifications at the rear, with a new beam wing arrangement requiring alterations to the lower part of the endplate.

These subtle changes provided a small lap time gain, crucial when a tenth of a second can make a significant difference, highlighting a focus on incremental improvements rather than a groundbreaking upgrade.

Red Bull's chief engineer, Paul Monaghan, admitted in Spain that progress seemed to have plateaued.

"At the moment, we're asymptoting with this one," he said.

This term refers to the diminishing returns as improvements approach the theoretical peak of car performance.

As Monaghan added: "The rules are restrictive. The budget cap is restrictive. I could complain about that endlessly, but we are possibly hitting a limit with these regulations."

Monaghan suggested that Red Bull, like other teams, must quickly decide whether to continue investing in the RB20 or shift focus to next year's car.

"We need to decide how much we allocate for 2025 and prepare for '26. Smarter people will find ways to improve this car," he said.

"So, can we execute these improvements? Can we apply them to the '24 car, move into '25, and still be ready for '26? That's our challenge, and nine other teams face the same dilemma."

Red Bull team boss Christian Horner sees the current situation as typical and indicative of what happens when rules remain stable, leading to diminishing returns for top teams.

"Excluding 2023, this is an incredible year," he said. "2023 was an anomaly; this is normal for Formula 1.

"Great teams and drivers create competition. Stable regulations always lead to convergence.

"When I first joined Formula 1, Ron Dennis said that for close racing, just leave the regulations alone, and everything converges.

"That's what we're seeing now, and it will all change again in 2026!"